What We’re Watching: Review of 2025 - Challenger Investment Management

As is fast becoming our tradition, for our November report we reflect on the year that was 2025 sharing our favourite books, podcasts and other things that have influenced our thinking during 2025.

To everyone that has read our reports during the year we hope you found them thought provoking, insightful and engaging even if you didn’t always agree with them! We hope you take some time over the holidays to relax, reflect and reinvigorate. We sure will!

Favourite book:

Jonathan Kearns, Chief Economist and Head of Regulatory Affairs: Abundance by Ezra Klein (New York Times journalist) and Derek Thompson (writer at the Atlantic) has gained a strong following in Canberra and so deserves attention. It’s a policy book about the United States but the lessons are highly relevant for Australia given our weak productivity growth which is eroding our living standards and a focus of government policy. The book covers the critical intersection of government, society and economics.
Michael Bors, Senior Portfolio Manager: It is hard to beat the lineup of Bloomberg opinion writers (John Authers, Paul Davies, Matt Levine and co) to provide unique perspectives on policy, banking and markets. On LinkedIn I have also enjoyed the writings of Paul Mortimer-Lee for all things UK and central banking and George Magnus on China (both bearish/ cautious).
Cherie Juwono, Acquisition Finance: I was a bit late to pick up Billion Dollar Whale (by Bradley Hope and Tom Wright) which was published a few years ago, but better late than never. The book details the almost-unbelievable heist committed by Jho Low, siphoning billions from a Malaysian sovereign wealth fund, helped by some wily investment bankers. It surprised me how little this was covered in mainstream media given the scale of the fraud, so thought the book was a good read. Also interesting to learn how Jho Low chose to spend his illegally gotten gains – in his place, I’m not sure I would’ve involved Miranda Kerr and Leonardo Di Caprio, but to each his own. You’ll have to read the book to know how exactly those A-list celebs are linked to the story!
Brent Stephan, GM Credit Risk: Enjoyed reading The North Water which was a bit moody and dark but a good read.
Kieran Roane, Investment Grade Corporate Credit: They say history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes and one of the books I read this year, Material World by Ed Conway, ran almost in parallel to what we have seen play out over 2025. The book looks at how six fundamental materials (sand, salt, iron, copper, oil, and lithium) have transformed human civilisation and continue to play an outsized driver of our futures, from the rapid advancements in semiconductor chips to the control of materials vital to power the green energy transition. The book delves into the issues of supply chain fragility and how geopolitics around the control or access to these resources translates into commercial and technological superiority from the dominance of advanced glass making by the Venetians in the 15^th to 16^th century to China’s ongoing control of rare earth materials.

Favourite podcast/stream:

Pete Robinson, Head of Investment Strategy: last year I called out the The Rest is History podcast which has exploded over the past 12 months, due mostly to this article so I do feel some pressure on this year’s call (still a great listen if you ignored me last year). As a basketball lover, this year the return of Zach Lowe with the Zach Lowe Show has been my number 1 go to for the year. Not just for the basketball takes but for the relatability – there’s something so comforting listening to someone and knowing all their pop culture references and more importantly, agreeing with them!
Jonathan Kearns, Chief Economist and Head of Regulatory Affairs: With Geopolitics having such a big influence on economies and markets over the past year I’ve been listening more frequently to Ian Bremmer’s GZero podcast. He neatly analyses what’s going on in the world particularly as it relates to actions of the United States.
Kieran Roane, Investment Grade Corporate Credit: I found the podcast X Man: The Elon Musk Origin Story fascinating. Whatever the view of the man himself, and accepting very few truly understand him, this podcast delves into how, in part, his voracious reading of science fiction as a child as an escapism from a difficult childhood has shaped his world views e.g., Mars as a “back -up” given the vulnerability of civilisation but also the types of companies he launches such as Space X and Neuralink which all have exhibited his far reaching innovation and long term thinking, whilst also a tendency towards pushing his businesses, his colleagues and himself to extremes.

Favourite X/Twitter/LinkedIn follow:

Pete Robinson, Investment Strategy: Bruce Richards of Marathon Asset Management has started sharing his observations on LinkedIn. Anyone who has met him knows that he goes a million miles an hour and manages to cover a huge range of dense topics in a short meeting. His posts are no different – heavy on detail, no “dumbing down” to the lowest common denominator but generally insightful with clear takeaways. Recent posts have covered the PIIGS, Fed Policy, insurance company demand for private assets, the 50 year mortgage and potential debt funding needs of US data centres. Something for everyone!
Brent Stephan, GM Credit Risk: No podcasts but few good concerts this year with Oasis, Kasabian, Bloc Party and Franz Ferdinand. And yes, Spotify guessed my age correctly.
Jonathan Kearns, Chief Economist and Head of Regulatory Affairs: Given President Trump is doing his best to rewrite the rules and practice of the international trading system, the insights of top trade economist Richard Baldwin are worth reflection.

Favourite research/calls for 2026:

Jonathan Kearns, Chief Economist and Head of Regulatory Affairs: The e61 institute has got a good group of researchers and does good analysis of policy-relevant issues that are important for Australian society, some of which are a focus of government policy and some which should get a lot more commitment from policy.
Pete Robinson, Head of Investment Strategy: My non-consensus call is that Meta will be downgraded from one of the major credit rating agencies. Having lived through the GFC as a structured credit investor I am always on the look out for mispriced high grade risk. Meta has huge capex needs as an AI hyperscaler and is facing increased regulatory risk in the US and Europe who may follow the Australian experiment. There is little reason in my view why they need to be an AA- rated issuer and if revenue growth slows, they may fund more of their capex through debt issuance.

On behalf of the team, thanks for reading.

Pete Robinson

Head of Investment Strategy – Fixed Income | +61 2 9994 7080 | probinson@challenger.com.au

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